Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Grice vs Ricardo Lamas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Grice
us

Matt Grice

“The Real One”

15-5-0FeatherweightUFC

1674Good

Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record20-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
R-1 MMATeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

Ricardo Lamas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matt Grice carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt GriceNow 1674
If they win+19→ 1693
If they lose-13→ 1661
Ricardo LamasNow 1730
If they win+10→ 1740
If they lose-14→ 1716

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.09
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
53%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.69
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
56%
Strike defense
58%
2.19
Takedown avg.
1.84
38%
Takedown accuracy
34%
82%
Takedown defense
47%
0.49
Submission avg.
0.95

Trajectory

Matt GriceRicardo Lamas
170017502011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
3 (20%)
Submission
5 (25%)
5 (33%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricardo Lamas72%
Matt Grice 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Lamas a 72% favorite over Matt Grice in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Ricardo Lamas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1674, a 56-point edge.

Matt Grice finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Lamas 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.