Matt Hamill vs Rich Franklin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record29-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
IndependentTeamTeam Extreme
What's at stake
Rich Franklin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Matt Hamill carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1579
If they lose-9→ 1547
If they win+7→ 1717
If they lose-17→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt HamillRich Franklin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rich Franklin72%
Matt Hamill 28%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Rich Franklin a 72% favorite over Matt Hamill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Rich Franklin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1556, a 154-point edge.
Matt Hamill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Hamill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rich Franklin 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.