Matt Hamill vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record21-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
IndependentTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Tim Boetsch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Hamill carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1575
If they lose-13→ 1543
If they win+9→ 1640
If they lose-15→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt HamillTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Boetsch61%
Matt Hamill 39%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Boetsch a 61% favorite over Matt Hamill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tim Boetsch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1556, a 75-point edge.
Matt Hamill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Hamill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.