Matt Hobar vs Sergio Pettis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record25-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'6"
70,0"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Octagon MMATeamRoufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Sergio Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Matt Hobar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1628
If they lose-10→ 1596
If they win+7→ 1759
If they lose-17→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt HobarSergio Pettis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergio Pettis90%
Matt Hobar 10%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Pettis a 90% favorite over Matt Hobar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Sergio Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1606, a 146-point edge.
Matt Hobar finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.