Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Horwich vs Ricardo Almeida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-25-1Record13-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Legends MMATeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Ricardo Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Horwich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt HorwichNow 1567
If they win+13→ 1580
If they lose-11→ 1556
Ricardo AlmeidaNow 1603
If they win+14→ 1617
If they lose-18→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.20
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.74
TBD
Takedown accuracy
38%
TBD
Takedown defense
31%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Matt HorwichRicardo Almeida
15501600200920102011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

6 (20%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
21 (70%)
Submission
5 (38%)
3 (10%)
Decision
8 (62%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricardo Almeida60%
Matt Horwich 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Almeida a 60% favorite over Matt Horwich in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Ricardo Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1603 to 1567, a 36-point edge.

Matt Horwich enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matt Horwich finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Almeida 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.