Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-9-0Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'6"
73"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
HIT SquadTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Serra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1813
If they lose-18→ 1789
If they win+24→ 1629
If they lose-8→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt HughesMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes78%
Matt Serra 22%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 78% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1605, a 202-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Matt Hughes and Matt Serra share 2 common opponents: Georges St-Pierre and Chris Lytle.
Matt Hughes carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2007
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2010
LossDecision - Split · 2006