Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-9-0Record14-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
HIT SquadTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Renzo Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1814
If they lose-17→ 1790
If they win+23→ 1672
If they lose-9→ 1640
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt HughesRenzo Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes76%
Renzo Gracie 24%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 76% favorite over Renzo Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1649, a 158-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Renzo Gracie 77%.
Matt Hughes and Renzo Gracie share 1 common opponent: BJ Penn.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.