Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

45-9-0Record13-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
HIT SquadTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Ricardo Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt HughesNow 1807
If they win+6→ 1813
If they lose-18→ 1789
Ricardo AlmeidaNow 1603
If they win+24→ 1627
If they lose-8→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
53%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.20
54%
Strike defense
61%
2.95
Takedown avg.
3.74
50%
Takedown accuracy
38%
35%
Takedown defense
31%
1.18
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Matt HughesRicardo Almeida
160017001800200920102011

Win method breakdown

21 (47%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
14 (31%)
Submission
5 (38%)
10 (22%)
Decision
8 (62%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Hughes67%
Ricardo Almeida 33%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 67% favorite over Ricardo Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1603, a 204-point edge.

Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Almeida 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.