Matt Hughes vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-9-0Record24-1-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
HIT SquadTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1819
If they lose-12→ 1795
If they win+16→ 1827
If they lose-16→ 1795
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt HughesRinat Fakhretdinov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinat Fakhretdinov78%
Matt Hughes 22%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinat Fakhretdinov a 78% favorite over Matt Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1807 vs 1811), separated by just 4 points.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rinat Fakhretdinov 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.