Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Hughes vs Royce Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

45-9-0Record15-2-3
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73"Reach--
170 lbsWeight176 lbs
HIT SquadTeamGracie Humaita

What's at stake

Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Royce Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt HughesNow 1807
If they win+9→ 1816
If they lose-15→ 1792
Royce GracieNow 1726
If they win+20→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1714

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
0.88
53%
Strike accuracy
41%
1.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.13
54%
Strike defense
38%
2.95
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
35%
Takedown defense
67%
1.18
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Matt HughesRoyce Gracie
1750180018502010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

21 (47%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
14 (31%)
Submission
11 (73%)
10 (22%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Hughes60%
Royce Gracie 40%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 60% favorite over Royce Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1726, a 81-point edge.

Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Royce Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Royce Gracie 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.