Matt Hughes vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-9-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
73"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
HIT SquadTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1812
If they lose-19→ 1788
If they win+19→ 1592
If they lose-5→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1654 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt HughesThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes63%
Thiago Alves 37%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 63% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1573, a 234-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Matt Hughes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.