Matt Kovacs vs Nicolaj Wagner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-19-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
262 lbsWeight249 lbs
Catalyst Fight HouseTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1530
If they lose-12→ 1506
If they win+23→ 1553
If they lose-25→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt KovacsNicolaj Wagner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolaj Wagner66%
Matt Kovacs 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 66% favorite over Matt Kovacs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1518 vs 1530), separated by just 12 points.
Matt Kovacs finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.