Matt Kovacs vs Roggers Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-19-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
262 lbsWeight265 lbs
Catalyst Fight HouseTeamAlcateia MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1530
If they lose-12→ 1506
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-17→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt KovacsRoggers Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roggers Souza60%
Matt Kovacs 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 60% favorite over Matt Kovacs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1518 vs 1530), separated by just 12 points.
Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Kovacs finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.