Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Lindland vs Murilo Bustamante

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record15-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamBrazilian Top Team· 1657 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Matt Lindland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Murilo Bustamante carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+8→ 1737
If they lose-16→ 1713
Murilo BustamanteNow 1619
If they win+21→ 1640
If they lose-11→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
52%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.90
52%
Strike defense
60%
3.46
Takedown avg.
2.46
50%
Takedown accuracy
33%
61%
Takedown defense
55%
1.15
Submission avg.
1.23

Trajectory

Matt LindlandMurilo Bustamante
1600165017001750201020112012

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
6 (29%)
Submission
4 (27%)
6 (29%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Lindland72%
Murilo Bustamante 28%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Lindland a 72% favorite over Murilo Bustamante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Matt Lindland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1619, a 110-point edge.

Matt Lindland finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Murilo Bustamante 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.