Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Lindland vs Ricardo Almeida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record13-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team QuestTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Matt Lindland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ricardo Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+8→ 1737
If they lose-16→ 1713
Ricardo AlmeidaNow 1603
If they win+22→ 1625
If they lose-10→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
52%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.20
52%
Strike defense
61%
3.46
Takedown avg.
3.74
50%
Takedown accuracy
38%
61%
Takedown defense
31%
1.15
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Matt LindlandRicardo Almeida
1600165017001750200920102011

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
6 (29%)
Submission
5 (38%)
6 (29%)
Decision
8 (62%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Lindland61%
Ricardo Almeida 39%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Lindland a 61% favorite over Ricardo Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Matt Lindland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1603, a 126-point edge.

Matt Lindland finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Almeida 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.