Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Lindland vs Travis Lutter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Travis Lutter
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Travis Lutter

“The Serial Killer”

10-6-0Middleweight

1504Average

Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record10-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamLion's Den Dallas

What's at stake

Matt Lindland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Travis Lutter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+5→ 1734
If they lose-19→ 1710
Travis LutterNow 1504
If they win+38→ 1542
If they lose-10→ 1494

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
52%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
52%
Strike defense
43%
3.46
Takedown avg.
1.95
50%
Takedown accuracy
24%
61%
Takedown defense
30%
1.15
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Matt LindlandTravis Lutter
15001600170020092010

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
6 (29%)
Submission
7 (70%)
6 (29%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Lindland75%
Travis Lutter 25%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Lindland a 75% favorite over Travis Lutter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

Matt Lindland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1504, a 225-point edge.

Matt Lindland finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Travis Lutter 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.