Matt Mitrione vs Phil De Fries
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record29-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
43,0"Reach79"
255 lbsWeight264 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Phil De Fries is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Matt Mitrione carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1655
If they lose-9→ 1623
If they win+7→ 1809
If they lose-17→ 1785
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt MitrionePhil De Fries
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Phil De Fries84%
Matt Mitrione 16%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Phil De Fries a 84% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Phil De Fries holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1632, a 170-point edge.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Phil De Fries enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Matt Mitrione finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Phil De Fries 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.