Matt Mitrione vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
43,0"Reach72,0"
255 lbsWeight249 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616
If they win+12→ 1638
If they lose-12→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt MitrioneRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Mitrione57%
Roy Nelson 43%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Mitrione a 57% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1632 vs 1626), separated by just 6 points.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Matt Mitrione and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Sergei Kharitonov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
Loss Uppercut to Hammerfists · 2019
Loss Punches & Knees · 2018