Matt Mitrione vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
43,0"Reach72,0"
255 lbsWeight249 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616
If they win+12→ 1644
If they lose-12→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt MitrioneRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roy Nelson51%
Matt Mitrione 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roy Nelson a 51% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Mitrione's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1632 vs 1632), separated by just 0 points.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Matt Mitrione and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Sergei Kharitonov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
Loss Uppercut to Hammerfists · 2019
Loss Punches & Knees · 2018