Matt Mitrione vs Tim Hague
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record21-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
43,0"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight264 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamUFC Gym Edmonton
What's at stake
Matt Mitrione is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tim Hague carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1647
If they lose-17→ 1615
If they win+13→ 1627
If they lose-11→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt MitrioneTim Hague
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Mitrione55%
Tim Hague 45%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Mitrione a 55% favorite over Tim Hague in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matt Mitrione holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1632 to 1614, a 18-point edge.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tim Hague 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.