Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Sayles vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt SaylesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.83
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
42%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
62%
Strike defense
59%
0.36
Takedown avg.
0.58
17%
Takedown accuracy
39%
82%
Takedown defense
81%
0.72
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Matt SaylesMichael Johnson
160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
1 (13%)
Submission
2 (8%)
1 (13%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Sayles60%
Michael Johnson 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Sayles a 60% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1613), separated by just 0 points.

Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Sayles finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.