Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Sayles vs Sheymon Moraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Alliance MMATeamBlack House

What's at stake

Sheymon Moraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Matt Sayles carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt SaylesNow 1613
If they win+19→ 1632
If they lose-13→ 1600
Sheymon MoraesNow 1671
If they win+13→ 1684
If they lose-19→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.83
Sig. strikes / min
3
42%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
62%
Strike defense
64%
0.36
Takedown avg.
0
17%
Takedown accuracy
0%
82%
Takedown defense
54%
0.72
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Matt SaylesSheymon Moraes
160016501700202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
1 (13%)
Submission
1 (7%)
1 (13%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Sheymon Moraes61%
Matt Sayles 39%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Sheymon Moraes a 61% favorite over Matt Sayles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Sheymon Moraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1613, a 58-point edge.

Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Sayles finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sheymon Moraes 53%.

Sheymon Moraes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.