Matt Sayles vs Sheymon Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamBlack House
What's at stake
Sheymon Moraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Sayles carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1630
If they lose-14→ 1598
If they win+14→ 1680
If they lose-18→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt SaylesSheymon Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sheymon Moraes73%
Matt Sayles 27%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Sheymon Moraes a 73% favorite over Matt Sayles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Sheymon Moraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1612, a 54-point edge.
Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Sayles finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sheymon Moraes 47%.
Sheymon Moraes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.