Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Schnell vs Pedro Carvalho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record15-10-0
FlyweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight165 lbs
Fortis MMATeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt SchnellNow 1606
If they win+12→ 1618
If they lose-12→ 1594
Pedro CarvalhoNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0.60
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
43%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.21
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matt SchnellPedro Carvalho
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
9 (56%)
Submission
7 (47%)
5 (31%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Pedro Carvalho60%
Matt Schnell 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Pedro Carvalho a 60% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1608), separated by just 2 points.

Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Pedro Carvalho enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Carvalho 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.