Matt Schnell vs Pedro Carvalho
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record15-10-0
FlyweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight165 lbs
Fortis MMATeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt SchnellPedro Carvalho
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Schnell52%
Pedro Carvalho 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 52% favorite over Pedro Carvalho in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pedro Carvalho's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1622), separated by just 9 points.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Pedro Carvalho enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Carvalho 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.