Matt Schnell vs Rogério Bontorin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'5"
70"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fortis MMATeamGile Ribeiro Team· 1642 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Rogério Bontorin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1626
If they lose-11→ 1602
If they win+15→ 1648
If they lose-17→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt SchnellRogério Bontorin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Schnell61%
Rogério Bontorin 39%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 61% favorite over Rogério Bontorin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rogério Bontorin's way (47%).
Rogério Bontorin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1633 to 1613, a 20-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Rogério Bontorin 82%.
Matt Schnell and Rogério Bontorin share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Matt Schnell carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.