Matt Serra vs Shonie Carter
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-0Record52-32-7
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'6"Height5'9"
68"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight176 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamIron Academy
What's at stake
Matt Serra is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shonie Carter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1616
If they lose-21→ 1584
If they win+16→ 1513
If they lose-8→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt SerraShonie Carter
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Serra78%
Shonie Carter 22%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Serra a 78% favorite over Shonie Carter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Matt Serra holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1497, a 108-point edge.
Shonie Carter enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Serra finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Shonie Carter 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.