Matt Serra vs T.J. Schaefer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-0Record4-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach-
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team - Team Lima
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt SerraT.J. Schaefer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Serra52%
T.J. Schaefer 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Serra a 52% favorite over T.J. Schaefer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans T.J. Schaefer's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.
T.J. Schaefer enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Matt Serra finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, T.J. Schaefer 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.