Matt Serra vs Yves Edwards
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-0Record42-22-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
68"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Yves Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Serra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1593
If they win+9→ 1695
If they lose-15→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt SerraYves Edwards
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yves Edwards60%
Matt Serra 40%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Yves Edwards a 60% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Yves Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1605, a 81-point edge.
Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Serra finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Yves Edwards 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.