Matt Van Buren vs Regan Upshaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team GutterTeamHavoc MMA
What's at stake
Matt Van Buren is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Regan Upshaw carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1508
If they lose-17→ 1476
If they win+25→ 1503
If they lose-23→ 1455
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt Van BurenRegan Upshaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regan Upshaw70%
Matt Van Buren 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Regan Upshaw a 70% favorite over Matt Van Buren in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Van Buren's way (48%).
Matt Van Buren holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1493 to 1478, a 15-point edge.
Matt Van Buren enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Van Buren finishes 57% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.