Matt Veach vs Paul Kelly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record15-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Finney's MMATeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Matt Veach is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paul Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1665
If they lose-21→ 1633
If they win+21→ 1556
If they lose-11→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1559 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt VeachPaul Kelly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Veach52%
Paul Kelly 48%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Veach a 52% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Matt Veach holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1535, a 119-point edge.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Veach finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.