Matt Wiman vs Paul Sass
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record14-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'1"
68,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Skrap PackTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Paul Sass is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Matt Wiman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1620
If they lose-9→ 1596
If they win+13→ 1695
If they lose-19→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt WimanPaul Sass
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Sass75%
Matt Wiman 25%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Sass a 75% favorite over Matt Wiman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Paul Sass holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1605, a 77-point edge.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Wiman finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Paul Sass 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.