Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
68,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Skrap PackTeamBJ Penn's MMA
What's at stake
Shane Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Wiman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
If they win+14→ 1655
If they lose-18→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt WimanShane Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Wiman59%
Shane Nelson 41%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Wiman a 59% favorite over Shane Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Nelson's way (45%).
Shane Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1604, a 37-point edge.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Wiman finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Shane Nelson 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.