Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew Lopez vs Mitch Gagnon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record12-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
69.00Reach65,5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamTroop MMA

What's at stake

Mitch Gagnon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matthew LopezNow 1512
If they win+32→ 1544
If they lose-16→ 1496
Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+11→ 1642
If they lose-21→ 1610

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
51%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
55%
Strike defense
62%
3.32
Takedown avg.
1.16
60%
Takedown accuracy
25%
71%
Takedown defense
66%
1.33
Submission avg.
1.93

Trajectory

Matthew LopezMitch Gagnon
1500155016001650201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
4 (40%)
Submission
10 (83%)
2 (20%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Mitch Gagnon53%
Matthew Lopez 47%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Gagnon a 53% favorite over Matthew Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Mitch Gagnon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1512, a 119-point edge.

Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matthew Lopez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Gagnon 92%.

Matthew Lopez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.