Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew Lopez vs Shane Campbell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record5-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
69.00Reach71"
135 lbsWeight140 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matthew LopezNow 1512
If they win+24→ 1536
If they lose-24→ 1488
Shane CampbellNow 1508
If they win+16→ 1524
If they lose-16→ 1492

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
3.32
Takedown avg.
TBD
60%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.33
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matthew LopezShane Campbell
150015502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
4 (40%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (80%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Campbell59%
Matthew Lopez 41%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Campbell a 59% favorite over Matthew Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matthew Lopez's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1512 vs 1508), separated by just 4 points.

Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matthew Lopez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shane Campbell 20%.

Shane Campbell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.