Matthew O'Rourke vs Moti Horenstein
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record1-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
-Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Ryano WaterfordTeamMoti Horenstein MMA
What's at stake
Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Moti Horenstein carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-27→ 1444
If they win+27→ 1457
If they lose-21→ 1409
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matthew O'RourkeMoti Horenstein
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke70%
Moti Horenstein 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over Moti Horenstein in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1430, a 41-point edge.
Moti Horenstein enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.