Matthew O'Rourke vs Rick Roufus
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record4-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
-Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Ryano WaterfordTeamTBD
What's at stake
Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Rick Roufus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445
If they win+26→ 1464
If they lose-22→ 1416
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matthew O'RourkeRick Roufus
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke72%
Rick Roufus 28%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 72% favorite over Rick Roufus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1438, a 33-point edge.
Rick Roufus enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rick Roufus 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.