Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew O'Rourke vs Yosuke Nishijima

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record0-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
-Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight190 lbs
Team Ryano WaterfordTeamTakada Dojo

What's at stake

Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Yosuke Nishijima carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
Yosuke NishijimaNow 1418
If they win+28→ 1446
If they lose-20→ 1398

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matthew O'RourkeYosuke Nishijima
1400145020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke72%
Yosuke Nishijima 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 72% favorite over Yosuke Nishijima in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1418, a 53-point edge.

Yosuke Nishijima enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.