Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew Semelsberger vs Preston Parsons

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-8-0Record11-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
75"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Clinch AcademyTeamElevate MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Preston ParsonsNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.50
43%
Strike accuracy
52%
4.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.12
54%
Strike defense
55%
1.01
Takedown avg.
3.53
57%
Takedown accuracy
37%
46%
Takedown defense
71%
0.38
Submission avg.
2.35

Trajectory

Matthew SemelsbergerPreston Parsons
160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (9%)
Submission
9 (82%)
4 (36%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Preston Parsons60%
Matthew Semelsberger 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Preston Parsons a 60% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1610), separated by just 2 points.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Preston Parsons enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matthew Semelsberger finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Preston Parsons 82%.

Matthew Semelsberger carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.