Combat Edge Intelligence

Maurício Rua vs Will Fleury

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-14-1Record17-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight238 lbs
Universidade da LutaTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Maurício RuaNow 1691
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
Will FleuryNow 1692
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
2.01
Takedown avg.
TBD
49%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
49%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.71
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Maurício RuaWill Fleury
165017001750202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

21 (78%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
1 (4%)
Submission
4 (24%)
5 (19%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Will Fleury76%
Maurício Rua 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Will Fleury a 76% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1692), separated by just 1 points.

Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Maurício Rua finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.