Combat Edge Intelligence

Maurício Rua vs Ovince St. Preux

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-14-1Record27-18-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"Reach80″
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Universidade da LutaTeamKnoxville MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Maurício RuaNow 1691
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
Ovince St. PreuxNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.03
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
54%
Strike defense
48%
2.01
Takedown avg.
1.09
49%
Takedown accuracy
36%
49%
Takedown defense
67%
0.71
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Maurício RuaOvince St. Preux
170017502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

21 (78%)
KO/TKO
12 (44%)
1 (4%)
Submission
8 (30%)
5 (19%)
Decision
7 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Maurício Rua and Ovince St. Preux within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1678), separated by just 13 points.

Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Maurício Rua finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Ovince St. Preux 74%.

Ovince St. Preux carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.