Maurício Rua vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
27-14-1Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'4"
76"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Universidade da LutaTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Maurício Rua is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Maurício RuaPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Craig51%
Maurício Rua 49%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Craig a 51% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Maurício Rua's way (46%).
Maurício Rua holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1662, a 29-point edge.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Maurício Rua finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.