Max Griffin vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-13-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMAGOLD Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Max Griffin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1654
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Max GriffinThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Griffin73%
Thiago Alves 27%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Griffin a 73% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Max Griffin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1572, a 97-point edge.
Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Max Griffin finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Max Griffin and Thiago Alves share 2 common opponents: Tim Means and Carlos Condit.
Max Griffin carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.