Combat Edge Intelligence

Max Mustaki vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
CheckmatTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Max MustakiNow 1508
If they win+24→ 1532
If they lose-24→ 1484
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

8.20
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
46%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Max MustakiNathan Trepagnier
1500155020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
2 (33%)
Submission
2 (40%)
1 (17%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier62%
Max Mustaki 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 62% favorite over Max Mustaki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Max Mustaki's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1508 vs 1505), separated by just 3 points.

Max Mustaki finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.