Combat Edge Intelligence

Mehdi Baghdad vs Mohammad Fahmi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record6-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
40,0"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Black HouseTeamSpecial Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mehdi BaghdadNow 1585
If they win+16→ 1601
If they lose-16→ 1569
Mohammad FahmiNow 1586
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
31%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.56
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
46%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Mehdi BaghdadMohammad Fahmi
15501600202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (17%)
3 (25%)
Submission
4 (67%)
1 (8%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Mohammad Fahmi70%
Mehdi Baghdad 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mohammad Fahmi a 70% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1586), separated by just 1 points.

Mehdi Baghdad finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Fahmi 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.