Combat Edge Intelligence

Mehdi Baghdad vs Pedro Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record5-0-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
40,0"Reach-
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Black HouseTeamCerrado MMA· 1632 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mehdi BaghdadNow 1586
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Pedro SouzaNow 1585
If they win+24→ 1609
If they lose-24→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
31%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.56
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
46%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Mehdi BaghdadPedro Souza
14501500155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
3 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (8%)
Decision
4 (80%)

Combat Edge model read

Pedro Souza70%
Mehdi Baghdad 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Pedro Souza a 70% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mehdi Baghdad's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1585), separated by just 1 points.

Pedro Souza enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Mehdi Baghdad finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Souza 20%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.