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Combat Edge Intelligence

Mehdi Baghdad vs Romário Jaguar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record5-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
40,0"Reach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Black HouseTeamReborn Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mehdi BaghdadNow 1586
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Romário JaguarNow 1587
If they win+24→ 1611
If they lose-24→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
31%
Strike accuracy
Not available
4.56
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
46%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
0%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
33%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Mehdi BaghdadRomário Jaguar
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
2 (40%)
3 (25%)
Submission
1 (20%)
1 (8%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Romário Jaguar67%
Mehdi Baghdad 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Romário Jaguar a 67% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1587), separated by just 1 points.

Mehdi Baghdad finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Romário Jaguar 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.