Mehdi Baydulaev vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-2-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71.7"Reach70"
147 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club BerkutTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1767
If they lose-16→ 1735
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mehdi BaydulaevRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mehdi Baydulaev60%
Rafa García 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Mehdi Baydulaev a 60% favorite over Rafa García in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafa García's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1751 vs 1756), separated by just 5 points.
Mehdi Baydulaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mehdi Baydulaev finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Mehdi Baydulaev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.