Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record7-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'7"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Raven House MMATeamDamas 013
What's at stake
Melissa Croden is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tainara Lisboa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1637
If they lose-18→ 1605
If they win+18→ 1606
If they lose-14→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melissa Croden70%
Tainara Lisboa 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Croden a 70% favorite over Tainara Lisboa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Melissa Croden holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1623 to 1588, a 35-point edge.
Tainara Lisboa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Melissa Croden finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tainara Lisboa 86%.
Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa share 1 common opponent: Luana Santos.
Melissa Croden carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.