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Combat Edge Intelligence

Melissa Gatto vs Paige VanZant

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-3-2Record8-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'4"
69"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
MSP· 1637 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamGracie Barra Portland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Melissa GattoNow 1572
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-16→ 1556
Paige VanZantNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.47
Sig. strikes / min
3.35
50%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.62
54%
Strike defense
43%
1.77
Takedown avg.
1.27
3%
Takedown accuracy
33%
59%
Takedown defense
34%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.96

Trajectory

Melissa GattoPaige VanZant
160020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
4 (44%)
Submission
3 (38%)
2 (22%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Melissa Gatto78%
Paige VanZant 22%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Gatto a 78% favorite over Paige VanZant in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paige VanZant's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1572 vs 1574), separated by just 2 points.

Melissa Gatto finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.

Melissa Gatto carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.