Combat Edge Intelligence

Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charrière

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-8-0Record21-12-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Chapa Quente

What's at stake

Melquizael Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Morgan Charrière carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Melquizael CostaNow 1681
If they win+11→ 1692
If they lose-13→ 1668
Morgan CharrièreNow 1643
If they win+13→ 1656
If they lose-11→ 1632

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
4.02
50%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.51
55%
Strike defense
54%
2
Takedown avg.
2.06
41%
Takedown accuracy
0%
59%
Takedown defense
83%
1.09
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Melquizael CostaMorgan Charrière
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (35%)
KO/TKO
13 (62%)
8 (31%)
Submission
3 (14%)
9 (35%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Melquizael Costa61%
Morgan Charrière 39%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Melquizael Costa a 61% favorite over Morgan Charrière in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Melquizael Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1643, a 38-point edge.

Melquizael Costa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Morgan Charrière 76%.

Melquizael Costa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.