Combat Edge Intelligence

Melquizael Costa vs Muhammad Naimov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-8-0Record13-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao EmilioTeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Melquizael CostaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Muhammad NaimovNow 1679
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
2.61
50%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
55%
Strike defense
45%
2
Takedown avg.
1.69
41%
Takedown accuracy
36%
59%
Takedown defense
68%
1.09
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Melquizael CostaMuhammad Naimov
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (35%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
8 (31%)
Submission
2 (15%)
9 (35%)
Decision
5 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Melquizael Costa and Muhammad Naimov within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1679), separated by just 3 points.

Melquizael Costa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Muhammad Naimov 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.