Melquizael Costa vs Spike Carlyle
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-8-0Record15-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamKings MMA· 1672 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melquizael CostaSpike Carlyle
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melquizael Costa62%
Spike Carlyle 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Melquizael Costa a 62% favorite over Spike Carlyle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1680), separated by just 1 points.
Melquizael Costa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Spike Carlyle 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.